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The US election is tremendous game

by Financial Economy

The US presidential election shows once again the division of the country: Donald Trump and Joe Biden are in a close head-to-head race. Both candidates still have a chance to win.

It could all have been so easy for Donald Trump. The US president last dreamed of the “red wave” during the election campaign. And now this: His presidency is pending. Polling stations in most states have been closed for many hours, people are busy counting, and there is still no winner. Neither Trump nor Biden have reached the magical mark of 270 votes in the Electoral College, the electoral body, at the moment.

The US election is tremendous game

Joe Biden and his Democrats are likely to be just as disappointed. They had hoped that an early knockout blow in the southern states of Florida, Georgia and North Carolina would make Trump contest for re-election. But nothing came of this plan. Now Biden and Co. have to wait too. In the end, the election could be decided in the northern states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, as in 2016. The count there is still ongoing and in the worst case scenario could even drag on for several days.

Officially, of course, both sides continue to exercise optimism. Trump will definitely win the election, the polls are wrong, say the Republicans. Trump himself claimed via Twitter that he was “far ahead”. But his opponents in the Democrats would try to “steal” his victory from him.

Joe Biden was also sure of victory: “We feel good. We think we are on the way to win this election,” said Joe Biden during a brief appearance in front of fans in his hometown of Wilmington, Delaware.

Light and shadow for both sides

In fact, with the state of the race so far, there is light and shadow for both sides. Once again, this election shows the deep division in the USA, which in many places leads to extremely narrow election results.

The Democrats had clearly hoped for more. The much-invoked “blue wave” is unlikely to come about. Now they even have to fear that Trump will win again and occupy the White House for four more years.

The good news for Joe Biden is that he may still win. As things stand, he has succeeded in chasing Trump from the important state of Arizona, which has so far been a Republican stronghold. If he were to conquer Michigan and Wisconsin, for example, he would be president.

At the same time, he has so far managed to hold important states that Hillary Clinton won in 2016. Trump had hoped to steal Biden from New Hampshire and Minnesota. But nothing came of it.

Overall, Biden also appears to have managed to attract more retirees and voters in the suburbs of big cities. The Democrats now hope that the counting of the last votes will produce a similar picture to that of the midterm elections in 2018. There were initially some signs of a Republican victory, but then, often only after days, all votes from many metropolitan areas were counted The Democrats were able to catch up massively – and conquer the House of Representatives.

The big question, however, is still whether Biden’s strategy of scoring points in the northern states will work. As in 2016, Trump has collected a lot of votes in the rural regions there. In the Democratic strongholds, the votes are still being counted, which can help Biden. Around the metropolis of Detroit in Michigan, in Philadelphia in Pennsylvania and in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, he still has to get a lot of votes to beat Trump.

Trump’s major success in Florida

The good news for Donald Trump is that so far he has mainly been able to defend many of his important strongholds. The clear victory in Florida is a particularly good sign for him.

After counting 96 percent of the ballot papers, Trump is almost 400,000 votes and three and a half percentage points ahead of his challenger in the southern state. Biden fared a lot worse than Hillary Clinton four years ago – although he was just ahead of Trump in most polls until recently.

Trump was able to mobilize the Latinos around Miami in particular, something that had been emerging for months. You had stayed in the Democratic camp at the last election. Trump presented himself in the election campaign as a fighter against socialism in the western hemisphere and was able to score points with the Cubans and Venezuelans living in Miami.

The result in Florida could also have been a result of the different strategies of the two opponents in the final spurt: While Biden completed four appointments in Pennsylvania, Trump spoke to his supporters in Miami last weekend.

Who is bringing Georgia?

The good result for Trump in Florida set the tone for the other two “Battleground States” in the southeast. After counting an estimated 95 percent of the votes, Trump is just ahead in North Carolina, after counting 82 percent of the votes in Georgia, his lead there is even more pronounced.

In contrast to Florida, Trump has not yet been declared the winner in these two states. In North Carolina, according to the New York Times, there was a glitch in the transmission of votes from Randolph County.

And in Georgia, too, there were apparently irregularities: A waterfall in Fulton County with the Democratic stronghold of Atlanta led to a delay in the vote count. So Biden can continue to hope in Georgia: The “New York Times” predicts that he has good chances of turning the situation in the southern state.

Texas will probably stay red

Meanwhile, Trump seems to be well on his way to defending the biggest chunk of the contested states: In Texas, after counting 93 percent of all votes, he is ahead with a good six percentage points. The Democrats’ hopes of conquering the demographically changing Republican stronghold will very likely not come true this year.

So now all eyes are directed to the north. Trump was able to defend Ohio there. What this promises for the rest of the “rust belt states” – Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin – is open at the moment.

Source: https://www.spiegel.de/

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